A digital newspaper on a modern tablet computer held by a young woman, who is reading the day’s news. The photo was taken by looking over the model's shoulder. A bookshelf is visible in the background of the picture. The newspaper on the device screen was created by myself in Indesign, I own the copy right of the design and layout. The image of Frankfurt on the device is my own, I own the copy right. The text is all lorem ipsum except for the titles, which are generic and entirely fictional – these were written by myself.

国信证券选取了管理规模较大的8家海外资产管理机构,汇总其对2023年宏观经济和大类资产的战术观点。

经济方面:各机构研究团队对未来一年内海外经济将遭遇衰退基本形成共识,海外央行通过过度紧缩货币政策的方式控制通货膨胀是导致经济衰退的首要原因,认为中国经济虽同样面临挑战但仍会维持增长。但在美国经济衰退程度上存在分歧。

各机构普遍认为海外总体通胀已经见顶回落,但核心通胀仍具粘性,通胀水平将保持在海外央行目标之上。

多数机构认可明年海外央行将继续收紧货币政策直至成功控制住通胀水平,部分认为经济趋弱将放缓央行加息步伐。

大类资产方面:各机构普遍普遍预期 2023 年海外固定收益市场表现将优于海外股票市场。

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